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Re: COVID-19 response
Boy I really hope that is a naive worst case scenario! 10% of that is
scary enough.
On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:29 PM Bryn Reinstadler <bryn marie r gmail com>
wrote:
> For myself, based on the data I have seen, I will be eliminating all
> non-essential social situations for the next while. Agreed to all the
> above
> saying that there is not sufficient testing available in the US (or here
> in
> Boston) to determine whether or not there is community spread*; but it is
> likely that there is. A Harvard affiliate also just tested positive
> <https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/3/14/harvard-coronavirus-first-case/>
> .
>
> I am not taking the T, going to restaurants, or (sadly) going ringing. I
> am going to the grocery store as usual (minimizing trips + maximizing
> distance between folx) and going on walks outside at least once a day,
> again keeping a distance. Massachusetts
> <https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/number-of-coronavirus-cases-jumps-to-138-in-massachusetts/2091137/>
> (n=138
> out of 475 tests) is where Italy was just a few weeks ago
> <https://www.newsweek.com/italy-coronavirus-update-4-deaths-150-infected-quarantine-lombardy-veneto-1488732>,
> based on official numbers, and Italy has a much higher testing capacity
> <https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-many-coronavirus-tests-per-capita-have-been-completed>
> than we do here, so it is likely that we are even closer in timeline.
> Italy
> has cut down all non-essential services and quarantined people to their
> houses as much as possible
> <https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/italy-starts-first-weekend-under-shutdown>,
> except for outdoor exercise (at a meter's distance), which was deemed
> essential. China has also quarantined people to their houses to "flatten
> the curve
> <https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727>"
> (enforce containment), which is what countries are focusing on since
> stopping spread seems unlikely/impossible now (if you're only going to
> read
> one of these articles, please read that one). Partners hospitals,
> including
> MGH and Brigham, are cancelling some elective surgeries* in order to
> convert ORs into ICUs -- they are expecting this virus on top of an
> already
> bad flu season to overwhelm our medical system, even in a city that has
> some of the best hospital infrastructure in the world.
>
> Anything that we can do *not* to be a part of that burden seems to me to
> be more important than continuing to run a recreational activity, but
> Leland and I will be voting with our feet as Dale suggested. The aspect
> of
> ringing which is not recreational is service ringing. I propose that, as
> long as services are still happening, a single household or person should
> drive in and toll for all of the deaths from COVID-19 that have already
> occurred (over 5000 globally; over 50 in the US
> <https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/global-coronavirus-death-toll-tops-5000/>).
>
> I hope the many sources I linked above make it through the web filter; if
> not, email me if you'd like to see some of the data.
>
> ~ Bryn
>
> * source: email directly from Partners. Please don't share with broader
> media.
>
> On Sat, Mar 14, 2020 at 6:27 PM Gregory Russell <gfr10598 gmail com>
> wrote:
>
>> The best reference I found was
>> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-test-demand.html
>>
>> It suggests that criteria were very stringent until a couple weeks ago.
>> But the more liberal rules might have taken a while to actually have
>> much
>> impact.
>>
>> On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 6:03 PM Gregory Russell <gfr10598 gmail com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> > A big problem is that apparently people have only been tested if they
>> can
>> > trace exposure to another infected individual. Consequently,
>> > community
>> > transmission by definition couldn't be detected.
>> >
>> > Don't have a source for this but will forward if I find one.
>> >
>> > Things may change quickly now that some hospitals can do their own
>> tests.
>> >
>> > On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 5:59 PM Ken Olum <kdo cosmos phy tufts edu>
>> wrote:
>> >
>> >> Hi, all. Probably I should have kept my mouth shut instead of saying
>> >>
>> >> In my opinion it would be prudent to follow the CDC guidelines,
>> >> but
>> >> there is no need to go beyond them. As I understand them, these
>> >> guidelines depend critically on whether or not there is community
>> >> spread, meaning people who are turning up sick with no connection
>> to
>> >> any
>> >> known case. In that case it is probably appropriate to cancel
>> >> most
>> >> events. Otherwise CDC recommends only ordinary precautions
>> >> (handwashing
>> >> etc.) At the moment, Massachusetts has community spread only in
>> the
>> >> Berkshires, so it seems that we can go on with our lives here at
>> least
>> >> for now.
>> >>
>> >> On Thursday, a Tufts student tested positive for COVID-19. At this
>> >> moment Tufts does not know how this student was infected. I inquired
>> >> and they sent me a rather ambiguous message: "At some point we may be
>> >> able to track the source, but it's not clear right now." So perhaps
>> >> we
>> >> do have community transmission in the Boston area.
>> >>
>> >> A closer look at CDC's classifications says that this is still "None
>> >> to
>> >> Minimal" community transmission, and it doesn't trigger any different
>> >> recommendations. On the other hand, CDC seems to be an outlier in
>> their
>> >> conservative recommendations. Even in the case of Seattle, which has
>> >> widespread community transmission, they don't go as far as saying
>> >> that
>> >> you should cancel all meetings and close schools. Many
>> >> epidemiologists
>> >> have recommended far more stringent restrictions. So maybe CDC is
>> >> not
>> >> really to be trusted to be recommending sufficient action.
>> >>
>> >> Ken
>> >>
>> >> _______________________________________________
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>> >> Boston-change-ringers cosmos phy tufts edu
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>> >>
>> >
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