Re: COVID-19 response

[Gregory Russell <gfr10598 gmail com>]

The best reference I found was
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-test-demand.html

It suggests that criteria were very stringent until a couple weeks ago.
But the more liberal rules might have taken a while to actually have much
impact.

On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 6:03 PM Gregory Russell <gfr10598 gmail com> wrote:

> A big problem is that apparently people have only been tested if they can
> trace exposure to another infected individual.  Consequently, community
> transmission by definition couldn't be detected.
>
> Don't have a source for this but will forward if I find one.
>
> Things may change quickly now that some hospitals can do their own tests.
>
> On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 5:59 PM Ken Olum <kdo cosmos phy tufts edu> wrote:
>
>> Hi, all.  Probably I should have kept my mouth shut instead of saying
>>
>>     In my opinion it would be prudent to follow the CDC guidelines, but
>>     there is no need to go beyond them.  As I understand them, these
>>     guidelines depend critically on whether or not there is community
>>     spread, meaning people who are turning up sick with no connection to
>> any
>>     known case.  In that case it is probably appropriate to cancel most
>>     events.  Otherwise CDC recommends only ordinary precautions
>> (handwashing
>>     etc.)  At the moment, Massachusetts has community spread only in the
>>     Berkshires, so it seems that we can go on with our lives here at 
>> least
>>     for now.
>>
>> On Thursday, a Tufts student tested positive for COVID-19.  At this
>> moment Tufts does not know how this student was infected.  I inquired
>> and they sent me a rather ambiguous message: "At some point we may be
>> able to track the source, but it's not clear right now."  So perhaps we
>> do have community transmission in the Boston area.
>>
>> A closer look at CDC's classifications says that this is still "None to
>> Minimal" community transmission, and it doesn't trigger any different
>> recommendations.  On the other hand, CDC seems to be an outlier in their
>> conservative recommendations.  Even in the case of Seattle, which has
>> widespread community transmission, they don't go as far as saying that
>> you should cancel all meetings and close schools.  Many epidemiologists
>> have recommended far more stringent restrictions.  So maybe CDC is not
>> really to be trusted to be recommending sufficient action.
>>
>>                                         Ken
>>
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>
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