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Re: COVID-19 response

A big problem is that apparently people have only been tested if they can
trace exposure to another infected individual.  Consequently, community
transmission by definition couldn't be detected.

Don't have a source for this but will forward if I find one.

Things may change quickly now that some hospitals can do their own tests.

On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 5:59 PM Ken Olum <kdo cosmos phy tufts edu> wrote:

> Hi, all.  Probably I should have kept my mouth shut instead of saying
>
>     In my opinion it would be prudent to follow the CDC guidelines, but
>     there is no need to go beyond them.  As I understand them, these
>     guidelines depend critically on whether or not there is community
>     spread, meaning people who are turning up sick with no connection to
> any
>     known case.  In that case it is probably appropriate to cancel most
>     events.  Otherwise CDC recommends only ordinary precautions
> (handwashing
>     etc.)  At the moment, Massachusetts has community spread only in the
>     Berkshires, so it seems that we can go on with our lives here at 
> least
>     for now.
>
> On Thursday, a Tufts student tested positive for COVID-19.  At this
> moment Tufts does not know how this student was infected.  I inquired
> and they sent me a rather ambiguous message: "At some point we may be
> able to track the source, but it's not clear right now."  So perhaps we
> do have community transmission in the Boston area.
>
> A closer look at CDC's classifications says that this is still "None to
> Minimal" community transmission, and it doesn't trigger any different
> recommendations.  On the other hand, CDC seems to be an outlier in their
> conservative recommendations.  Even in the case of Seattle, which has
> widespread community transmission, they don't go as far as saying that
> you should cancel all meetings and close schools.  Many epidemiologists
> have recommended far more stringent restrictions.  So maybe CDC is not
> really to be trusted to be recommending sufficient action.
>
>                                         Ken
>
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