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Re: COVID-19 response
For myself, based on the data I have seen, I will be eliminating all
non-essential social situations for the next while. Agreed to all the above
saying that there is not sufficient testing available in the US (or here in
Boston) to determine whether or not there is community spread*; but it is
likely that there is. A Harvard affiliate also just tested positive
<https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/3/14/harvard-coronavirus-first-case/>
.
I am not taking the T, going to restaurants, or (sadly) going ringing. I am
going to the grocery store as usual (minimizing trips + maximizing distance
between folx) and going on walks outside at least once a day, again keeping
a distance. Massachusetts
<https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/number-of-coronavirus-cases-jumps-to-138-in-massachusetts/2091137/>
(n=138
out of 475 tests) is where Italy was just a few weeks ago
<https://www.newsweek.com/italy-coronavirus-update-4-deaths-150-infected-quarantine-lombardy-veneto-1488732>,
based on official numbers, and Italy has a much higher testing capacity
<https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-many-coronavirus-tests-per-capita-have-been-completed>
than we do here, so it is likely that we are even closer in timeline. Italy
has cut down all non-essential services and quarantined people to their
houses as much as possible
<https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/italy-starts-first-weekend-under-shutdown>,
except for outdoor exercise (at a meter's distance), which was deemed
essential. China has also quarantined people to their houses to "flatten
the curve
<https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727>"
(enforce containment), which is what countries are focusing on since
stopping spread seems unlikely/impossible now (if you're only going to read
one of these articles, please read that one). Partners hospitals, including
MGH and Brigham, are cancelling some elective surgeries* in order to
convert ORs into ICUs -- they are expecting this virus on top of an already
bad flu season to overwhelm our medical system, even in a city that has
some of the best hospital infrastructure in the world.
Anything that we can do *not* to be a part of that burden seems to me to be
more important than continuing to run a recreational activity, but Leland
and I will be voting with our feet as Dale suggested. The aspect of ringing
which is not recreational is service ringing. I propose that, as long as
services are still happening, a single household or person should drive in
and toll for all of the deaths from COVID-19 that have already occurred
(over
5000 globally; over 50 in the US
<https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/global-coronavirus-death-toll-tops-5000/>).
I hope the many sources I linked above make it through the web filter; if
not, email me if you'd like to see some of the data.
~ Bryn
* source: email directly from Partners. Please don't share with broader
media.
On Sat, Mar 14, 2020 at 6:27 PM Gregory Russell <gfr10598 gmail com> wrote:
> The best reference I found was
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-test-demand.html
>
> It suggests that criteria were very stringent until a couple weeks ago.
> But the more liberal rules might have taken a while to actually have much
> impact.
>
> On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 6:03 PM Gregory Russell <gfr10598 gmail com> wrote:
>
> > A big problem is that apparently people have only been tested if they
> > can
> > trace exposure to another infected individual. Consequently, community
> > transmission by definition couldn't be detected.
> >
> > Don't have a source for this but will forward if I find one.
> >
> > Things may change quickly now that some hospitals can do their own
> > tests.
> >
> > On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 5:59 PM Ken Olum <kdo cosmos phy tufts edu>
> > wrote:
> >
> >> Hi, all. Probably I should have kept my mouth shut instead of saying
> >>
> >> In my opinion it would be prudent to follow the CDC guidelines,
> >> but
> >> there is no need to go beyond them. As I understand them, these
> >> guidelines depend critically on whether or not there is community
> >> spread, meaning people who are turning up sick with no connection
> >> to
> >> any
> >> known case. In that case it is probably appropriate to cancel
> >> most
> >> events. Otherwise CDC recommends only ordinary precautions
> >> (handwashing
> >> etc.) At the moment, Massachusetts has community spread only in
> >> the
> >> Berkshires, so it seems that we can go on with our lives here at
> least
> >> for now.
> >>
> >> On Thursday, a Tufts student tested positive for COVID-19. At this
> >> moment Tufts does not know how this student was infected. I inquired
> >> and they sent me a rather ambiguous message: "At some point we may be
> >> able to track the source, but it's not clear right now." So perhaps
> >> we
> >> do have community transmission in the Boston area.
> >>
> >> A closer look at CDC's classifications says that this is still "None
> >> to
> >> Minimal" community transmission, and it doesn't trigger any different
> >> recommendations. On the other hand, CDC seems to be an outlier in
> >> their
> >> conservative recommendations. Even in the case of Seattle, which has
> >> widespread community transmission, they don't go as far as saying that
> >> you should cancel all meetings and close schools. Many
> >> epidemiologists
> >> have recommended far more stringent restrictions. So maybe CDC is not
> >> really to be trusted to be recommending sufficient action.
> >>
> >> Ken
> >>
> >> _______________________________________________
> >> Boston-change-ringers mailing list
> >> Boston-change-ringers cosmos phy tufts edu
> >> https://cosmos.phy.tufts.edu/mailman/listinfo/boston-change-ringers
> >>
> >
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