OK I have to go against the grain of the group on this one... I tried e-mailing this before but think I timed out, so if I'm repeating, forgive me.
High gas price is a DIS-incentive, NOT an incentive.
I feel very old. I remember when all the electric people KNEW that when gas just hit the magic $.50 a gallon, EVERYONE would go electric. That's when gas was $.29 a gallon for cheap leaded gas. It didn't happen. That's OK, because everyone just KNEW that when gas hit $1.00 a gallon (DOUBLE THE PRICE!) everyone would have to go electric. Well, It hit $1.00 a gallon (and crude spotted at $50 a barrel to do it... think for a few seconds about what that means) and people only moved in small numbers. Then we all thought they would die for electrics at $2.00 a barrel. I went to scholarly seminars telling us at contract prices of $55 a barrel or sustained pump prices of $2.00 a barrel everyone would go electric. Now we think at $3.00 a gallon (or $5 if you like) everyone will go electric. Folks, in Europe there are areas where gas was $6.00 a gallon (on a smaller average income) BEFORE the spike. Those same countries often have high or even no speed limits. Eclectic sales haven't taken off at all. What it says is SOMEONE will always pay. High prices just push lower income people out of the market. Now we all see the news casts telling us that $2.00 a gallon prices have hurt large and SUV sales. Yes, some lines are hurting. Excursion sales are down. But did you hear that July sales of F150 (a fuel pig!) was 20% above last year? Why? Incentives. The dis-incentive of high prices was more than offset by the incentive of some money. It's not all negative; all the sales of the Escape hybrid for the year have been called for, but that's an EMOTIONAL decision. Why? Because the premium of the Escape would require 100,000 miles of $3.00 a gallon gas to pay for. Perhaps resale will be higher, and maybe some people have made a case, but that isn't clear until resale is established. Besides, when fuel costs increase, almost all energy costs increase at almost the same rate. It isn't fair, but who says we are entitled to fair? You want to talk wind or solar? Fine. I've been at meetings where our wonderful government officials discuss how to get people who aren't paying their road tax at the pump can be forced to pay for the roads 'like everyone else'. They are from our government; they are here to help. But help whom?
So, if you want to see electrics really rolling, you need a real positive incentive. I wish it could be cost, but it doesn't look likely because to clear all the federal mandates for a motor vehicle of this weight isn't easy, and now the manufacturer has to plan 'womb-to-tomb' for the batteries for example in much of the world. So the incentive has to be something like 'zero sales tax on electrics' or 'zero license tax fee for electrics' or even 'refund part of my income tax because I bought an electric' or better yet, electric only lanes on freeways. Those are positive (real) incentives. And don't start taxing electric owners for road use because they didn't pay at the pump. That's no joke. You can't believe how well they can spin it; "More wealthy people drive eclectics, and don't pay road taxes." Well, since electrics cost more, more wealthy people DO drive them. They are fashion statements in Hollywood. But don't add another cost to electrics if you want them to succeed. High gas price is at best only a dis-incentive. To be honest, the short term effect for real manufacturing companies, who answer to Wall Street is usually to CUT BACK on research and development. Not just Ford or GM; I know people at Toyota and Honda, they cut programs as quick as we do. Unless the program is going, it gets pushed back. I'm really tired of being told (usually by the people profiting from it) that higher prices on ______ (you fill in the blank) are good for me.
Putting on my flame proof jacket.
Larry Elie
Isn't it funny how the gas
in the ground tank at the gas station gets
more expensive. I would
think some of those gallons are getting a
pretty good return on investment
for the station owner. I can see the
price at the pump jump after the
gas truck leaves the station, but
before it gets there and the price jumps
up. Oh well, the US needs to
see $5.00 a gallon gas, then maybe there
will be a serious move to alt
fuel..
-----Original
Message-----
From: elec-trak-bounces cosmos phy tufts edu
[mailto:elec-trak-bounces cosmos phy tufts edu] On
Behalf Of Neil
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 10:36 AM
To:
et
Subject: [SPAM] (ET) expensive
Yeah, it went from 2.75 to 3.00
yesterday here in WNY. Odd thing, I
advertised a Black & Decker
battery mower in local penysaver, never got
a call {:-{. Must be price
isn't high enough yet. I'm happy out 2
vehicles both get about 25 mpg, a
local guy said it cost over $100 to
fill up his SUV
!!
wp,bat
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