RE: (ET) expensive

["David Roden" <etpost drmm net>]

Every time gasoline prices rise, we see several new members on the EV 
discussion list.  Not all of them follow through and actually build the 
conversions they are talking about, but some do.  So it's true that rising 
fuel prices generate interest in EVs.  

But how much interest?  Hard to say.  Will it continue beyond the first 
months of expensive fuel?  Hard to say.  Presumably the automakers don't 
consider it strong enough and durable enough to make a business case for 
developing EVs, at least not yet.  (I do recall though that GM promised in 
an early 1980s news release that we could buy an electric Chevette by 
1985.  
I'm still waiting.)

Some have argued that if GM can build and profitably sell a 
limited-interest 
vehicle such as the Corvette, they ought to be able to build and 
profitably 
sell an EV.  The argument's somewhat hampered by the fact that the 
Corvette 
probably uses more mechanical components from other GM cars than an EV 
would 
- but in financial terms, they are probably right.  

However, GM has other reasons for not encouraging a disruptive technology. 
 
Their stockholders hold their feet to the fire for this quarter, not the 
long run, which pushes them toward quick-profit projects, not long-term 
development.  Besides, vehicles such as the Corvette are mainly image 
builders; GM presumably wants the elements of corporate image that are 
boosted by the Corvette, but not those advanced by the EV1. 

What might push more consumers toward EVs is not expensive fuel, but 
^unavailable^ fuel.  Put people in 1970s-style gas lines or hand them 
ration 
cards, and you've made it so their money (within legal means) ^can't^ fix 
their transportation problem.  At least in the US, people seem to have 
more 
money than patience.  (Or at least they ^think^ they do. ;-)

Then someone has to be prepared to make a lot of money selling EVs to 
these 
disgruntled people.  The EVs have to be market-ready, priced 
competitively, 
and just as reliable as anything else on the road.  

This might very well happen a few years from now, if things continue the 
way 
they're going in Asia.  Manufacturers in both China and Japan are 
currently 
developing small EVs.  For example, the Heibao EV, which turned up at the 
Tour de Sol a few years back, is reportedly in production according to 
this 
page:

http://www.chinesecars.net/index.php?page=5

And several others are reportedly in the prototype stage.

It's not hard to imagine some US entrepreneur with deep pockets buying 
enough congressional representatives to get an exemption from FMVSS (it's 
a 
fuel emergency, don't you know) and importing these vehicles by the 
shipload.  (Let's not discuss the fuel the ship requires. ;-)

I think that a similar strategy could be a winner for electric tractors, 
too.  Again, though, the price and quality would have to be competitive.  
>From what I can see, cost is what killed the ET; for most people, the 
advantages we treasure just weren't enough to overcome the price 
differential.  I wouldn't be too surprised if the next production electric 
tractor had a "made in China" label under the hood.

In fact, there are those who would argue that China is poised to do to the 
American automakers what Japan did to them in the 1970s.  Determining the 
validity of this prediction will be left as an exercise for the reader.  
;-)

But if we suppose that the current price and supply disruptions don't ever 
become permanent - that is, we just have 10 or 20 years of gradually 
rising 
prices - then the fueled vehicle is more likely to maintain its 
predominence.

Larry is right, high fuel costs alone aren't enough to drive EV 
acceptance.  
I've said for years that, barring external disruption, four elements have 
to 
be in place before EVs will be accepted in a particular nation: 

1.  Adequate economic advantage for EVs (very expensive fuel)
2.  An activist government ($ incentives for manufacturers and users)
3.  An educated, environmentally aware population (uncompromised media)
4.  Full cooperation from vehicle producers (they really want to)

You are not going to get all of these in the US.  I'd be surprised to see 
more than ^one^ of them here.

This means that in the states you would have to legislate EVs, which is 
pretty much what Larry said.  

But that's assuming that things remain relatively stable.  They may not.  
Add in some serious fuel supply disruptions and China's ascendance as a 
vehicle producing nation, and things just might change - and rather 
quickly. 
 Time will tell.


David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA

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