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[Emeriti-faculty] Study of Probability

Dear All, I was very struck and appalled at Phil Nelson's presentation of 
a common question that MDs face -  for which MDs polled showed overall 
pathetic ability to handle. I present below the problem.

       I presented the problem to an MD acquaintance with over ten years 
of practice and was told something like this:
 ~" Such statistics problems are too complex for me and my intuitive guess 
is often/usually very bad.
Therefore, I recommend a colonoscopy."

  My own knowledge of medicine tells me that practicing medicine this way 
is horrible practice and sometimes detrimental to the patient, for whom a 
colonoscopy might have some measure of problems.

THEREFORE, I urge all of us to consider that we teach our students, who 
are often premeds, the subject of conditional probability and Bayes' Law.

Here is Phil Nelson's problem. The final answer is close to 4.8% 
probability of colon cancer.



[cid:50C32AF8-3612-4C6F-8F0D-72B0795EB5BA@tufts.edu]

Leon

Professor of Physics
Tufts University
Medord, MA 02155

office: 617-627-5361
fax: 617-627-3878

Robinson Hall 357

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