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RE: (ET) Re: new electrics
On 19 Feb 2004 at 14:42, Chapin, Tim wrote:
> I think the focus should be for the small yard person.
All of this sounds terribly familiar. It's the talk I've heard countless
times from
people who are sure they can build road EVs and sell them by the thousands
to an eager market. They soon discover that the reason an electric
vehicle is
such a hard sell to individuals is that EVs solve a ^social^ problem, not
a
^personal^ one.
People in general don't really much care that EVs are cleaner or quieter
or
better for the environment. They don't perceive any tangible immediate
personal benefit from that. They cost more (mostly because of limited
volume production), work just a little differently (or a lot differently),
can't go
as far on a "tankful," have unfamiliar maintenance needs, and so on. Gas
vehicles actually work amazingly well already, and the automakers have
convinced us that they're already squeaky-clean. The average guy has to
ask, "So, what problem exactly is it that EVs are solving?"
The exact same issue applies to garden tractors. What problem exactly is
it
that you're solving with an electric tractor?
Quiet mowing, lack of fumes, easy starting, and no need for gasoline have
been the argument for electric push mowers for years. Yet they still have
only a tiny sliver of the push mower market, and there's a constant
turnover in
manufacturers because it's so difficult to aggregate enough sales for more
than one or two of them to even stay in the electric mower business. The
fact is that, to the average consumer, quiet and lack of gas and fumes
just
aren't of much interest. And gas mowers aren't even that hard to start
any
more. You also have to fight the image of electric mowers and weed
cutters
as feeble (which they usually are).
And there's the arena in which you propose to compete - the low end.
That's
the toughest segment of the market, and it's the same mistake that the
road
EV makers have made countless times. How can a tiny $20,000 or $30,000
electric runabout compete with a little $10,000 gas runabout? Exactly
what
about that electric is worth 2 to 3 times as much to the average person?
Similarly, commodity mass-production gas tractors will be very, very
difficult
to compete with on price - which is almost the only factor the average low-
end US buyer considers today.
You can't just build an electric tractor and expect people to buy it just
because it's good and clean and quiet. As the many failed road EV makers
will tell you, that doesn't work.
First, you need to find an unmet need related to outdoor care. It might
have
to do with to sheltering the user from liability or complying with new
regulations. For institutions, that can overcome price objections in a
trice.
Or, it might be a completely new solution to residential lawn care that
frees
up a relatively wealthy homeowner to spend much less time on it (an
example of and attempt at such an innovation might be the robot
lawnmowers).
Then you have to develop a product to meet that need. Ideally (for us) it
would be one where electricity is the only logical and practical fuel to
use for
the product.
You have to be open-minded and prepared for the possibility that it might
not
be a general purpose tractor. It might not even cut grass! But if you've
done
your homework correctly, you WILL have a market and you WILL make
money with it.
At least you will until one of the major companies decides they want a
piece
of your market and takes your customers away with something they build in
a Chinese or Mexican sweatshop for half the price. But that's another
story
entirely ...
I don't want to be the wet blanket here, or to discourage anybody. I
admire
folks who try to make a business of EVs (and ETs). But you are competing
in a very mature industry. It takes a carefully targeted product to
succeed in
such a market. I could be wrong, in fact I hope I am, but I don't think a
small
tractor for the average homeowner is that product.